Poll Results: The eReader Market

Recently, we have discussed the coverage of Apple’s new iPad, and we asked our readers, “In three years, who will dominate the eBook market?” We got a lot of responses, and there wasn’t really a consensus, but a narrow majority felt that Apple would be dominant:

• 35%: Amazon
• 53%: Apple
• 3%: Sony
• 8%: Other

Poll Results: CPG Online

We discussed Alice.com last week, and the idea of selling CPG products online, and we asked our readers, “In three years, what percentage of CPG products will be sold online?”

• 9%: Less than one percent
• 15%: One to two percent
• 15%: Two to three percent
• 61%: More than three percent

Our respondents are pretty optimistic about the prospects for online retail – I think it will take a bit longer, so my own guess was about one percent, but overall responses were very much to the higher end of the scale. Even 1% of the CPG market would be a huge number.

Poll Results: Optimization Tools

In last week’s TPMA Outlook, we discussed how the continuation of tight inventory policies among retailers points up the need for collaboration by suppliers on pricing and promotion optimization, and asked: “Does your company have the tools you need to collaborate with your retailers on pricing and promotion optimization?” The results were a surprise:

• 16% Yes - we have a good toolset
• 47% We have some of the tools needed, but not all
• 37% We lack the proper tools

I guess I sometimes get so close to an issue that I think we’re a lot farther along than we are, but that only 16% say they have all the tools and 37% say they don’t is a bit shocking.

Poll Results: Analytics and Goals

We discussed analytics and goals, and wondered if our readers’ analytics packages are aligned to measure the things they have set as goals for their programs: “Are the measurements generated by your analytics systems aligned with your program goals?” It appears not, in most cases:

• 36% We measure well
• 14% We can measure well toward some goals, but not all
• 29% We have inadequate or non-existent analytics
• 21% We have difficulty with defining goals

The largest number said they are doing well, but most are not. I think it’s interesting that 21% indicate that the problem isn’t with the analytics – the problem is setting goals.

Poll results: Year-End Economic Forecast

For our year-end poll, we asked our readers to play economist and forecast what 2010 will look like. As with economists, the answers were all over the lot, with the only consensus being that a boom is pretty unlikely.

• 5% There will be strong growth - could be a boom by next Christmas
• 39% No boom, but it will be an OK year
• 32% Not good - pretty much flat with maybe a bit of weak growth
• 24% The second dip of the recession is coming

The largest single group of our respondents was cautiously optimistic – 39% think the year will be ‘OK’. But overall, the forecasts were downbeat – a slight majority felt that there will be weak growth at best, and perhaps we’ll see the dreaded double-dip recession. Let’s hope these forecasts are no more accurate than the economists have been lately.

Poll Results: Co-Branded Private Label

Last week, we discussed the idea of co-branded private label, and asked "Will brand marketers soon begin offering co-branded private label products with their key retailers?"

• 14% Yes – and it will become a significant share of sales for those who do
• 38% Yes – but it will be limited in the next few years
• 48% It's not going to happen to any meaningful extent

It seems that our readers think co-branded private label is unlikely to have much impact in the short term.

Poll Results: Brand-Building at Retail

We recently discussed Wal-Mart's partnership with leading brands to create co-op advertising with the look of national ads. In our poll, we asked, "How effective can co-op ads and in-store promotions be in building a supplier's brand image?"

• 29% More effective than traditional national advertising
• 29% About as effective as traditional national advertising
• 33% It can be done, but it's less effective than traditional national advertising
• 8% Not effective at all

Only one in twelve respondents said brand-building can't be done through joint promotions with retailers. But while there was a big consensus that such promotions can be effective in brand-building, there was no agreement at all on how effective, with an almost even split among less effective than national ads, as effective, and more effective.

Poll Results: 'Boost Zones'

Recently, we discussed Coca-Cola's 'boost zones' strategy – intensive marketing efforts to inundate key urban centers as a counter to declining market share, and asked, "Will the 'boost zones' strategy result in significant share gains for Coca-Cola in 2010?"

• 23%: Yes – large gains
• 46%: Yes – some gains
• 15%: No – but it will stop their share losses
• 15%: No – they'll continue to lose share

There's a strong consensus that the strategy will pay off, but most think the gains will be relatively small.

Poll Results: Deductions

Last week we discussed deduction practices and asked our readers: “Do some retailers try to make it difficult to identify and clear deductions?”

• 31%: Most retailers do so
• 38%: It's common, but most don't
• 31%: Only a few do it

So most of our respondents think it’s at least fairly common, but there was no real consensus on the subject.

Poll Results: Holiday Discounting

Last week, we discussed the deep and early discounting we’re seeing this holiday season, and wondered what effect it will have on next year, so we asked, “When will the deep discounts begin in the 2010 holiday season?”

• 26%: Starting at Halloween, like this year
• 21%: Even earlier than this year
• 53%: Retailers will start moving back toward black Friday

There’s not much consensus. Just over half think the discounts will come later, but almost half think retailers will start cutting prices at Halloween again, or perhaps even earlier.

Poll Results: Shopper Marketing

Last week, we discussed a study indicating that shopper marketing is siloed, not integrated with other marketing efforts. We asked our readers, “Is your company integrating shopper marketing with other marketing efforts?” The majority say they are doing so, with less than a quarter saying they aren’t at least working on it or planning to do so.

• 54%: Yes
• 15%: We are planning to do so soon
• 8%: We're Starting to work on this
• 23%: No

Poll Results: Collaborative Forecasting

We discussed the benefits of retailers tapping into their suppliers’ systems and expertise when doing forecasts, and asked our readers: "Are your retailers collaborating with you on forecasts?"

• 11%: Yes – Most of our larger customers work with us on forecasts
• 37%: Yes – Many of our larger customers work with us
• 47%: Somewhat yes – Some of our larger customers work with us
• 5%: No – Few or none of our larger customers work with us

The good news is that only 5% said few or none of their customers are working with them, but on the other hand, only 11% said most of their big customers are collaborating. The biggest percentages answered “some” or, more positively, “many.” It’s a start, I guess.

Poll Results: Spending on Forecasting

We were curious about whether our readers’ companies will be investing more heavily in forecasting and analytics next year. The answer was definitely yes, but not a resounding yes. Almost half said that they will increase budgets next year, but only 18% said the increases will be large. Only 5%, though, will be cutting budgets. It looks like, after the cutbacks this year, the corporate pursestrings are loosening, but just gradually.

• 18%: Yes, we're investing much more heavily.
• 45%: Yes, we'll be making some increases in investment.
• 32%: Our budget will stay about the same.
• 5%: We'll be cutting spending in this area in 2010.

Poll Results: Stores-within-Stores

We discussed research into when and why ‘stores-within-stores’ are effective, and asked, “Will we be seeing more or fewer stores-within-stores in the near future?”

Most of you (59%) said there will be more such stores, with the rest split pretty evenly between those who think there will be fewer and those who say things won’t change much. I’m in the minority again, I voted "Fewer."

• 59%: More
• 22%: Fewer
• 20%: About the same

Poll Results: Project Impact

Last week we discussed Walmart’s "Project Impact" and speculation that Walmart might have their sights set on driving a few of their competitors out of business (or at least inflicting some serious wounds). So we asked, “Which national retailer is most in danger from Walmart’s Project Impact?”

And you responded in record numbers. A majority of 56% said that Kmart is in the biggest trouble. But good percentages picked just about all the possibilities:

• 56%: Kmart
• 14%:Toys R Us
• 7%: Michaels
• 7%: Rite-Aid
• 16%: Other

It looks like I should have included Target on the list, because Target got enough write-in votes under “other” to just about tie Michaels and Rite-Aid. Other write-ins went to Best Buy, Sears, none of the above, and all of the above.

Poll Results: Walmart vs. Target

Last week, we discussed how Walmart has widened their lead over Target during the recession, as consumers tightened their belts. With signs of recovery, we wondered how things will go in the near future and asked, “Whose sales will grow more over the next twelve months – Walmart or Target?”

We hit your hot button apparently – this question got far more responses than any we’ve ever asked before. And our readers are divided, but with a definite pro-Walmart bias. The results were:

• 59%: Walmart
• 47%: Target

I was a little surprised, to be honest (I cast my vote for Target). But the consensus seems to be that, even as things improve, more consumers will opt for "cheap" than "chic."

Poll Results: Decline of Secondary Brands

We discussed the shrinkage of market share for secondary brands, and asked, “Is the market going to continue shrinking for brands that are not #1 in their category?” The overwhelming majority think that these brands will continue to lose share, although most of them think the rate of decline will slow as the economy improves.

• 28%: Yes, the pace of shrinkage will continue.
• 47%: Yes, but the rate of shrinkage will slow a bit after the recession.
• 25%: No, things will stabilize or perhaps even improve for those brands.

Poll results: Is Trade Promo Spending Increasing?

Although the largest segment of respondents answered last week’s question, is trade promo spending increasing or decreasing (as a percentage of sales) at your company, by saying that spending is fairly steady, almost half said that they have increased spending, with a third saying that spending is up substantially. 16% told us that their spending is down a bit, but it seems that nobody is making big cuts.

• 32%: It's up substantially in 2009
• 16%: It's up a bit
• 36%: Pretty much the same
• 16%: It's down a bit
• 0%: Down substantially

Poll Results: Is Walmart violating FTC Act?

There was overwhelming agreement that Walmart's demands that suppliers turn over a percentage of their marketing budgets equal to Walmart's share of the suppliers' sales is a violation of the FTC Act. A strong majority thinks that the FTC is unlikely to do anything about it, although almost a quarter of our respondents said that they think the FTC might act. About an eighth think Walmart is acting legally in light of current practices.

* 63%: Probably illegal, but the FTC won't do anything
* 24%: Probably illegal, and I think the FTC will have to act this time
* 13%: Probably legal under currently accepted practices